Well, Ed, I can only guess at this.
But since dyes come in primary colors (don't believe the CRUD on the label) I'd start w/ a light brown. See how a fairly dense ratio, say 5:1 (alcohol to dye) looks on the poplar. If that looks close to the tone of the match you're after then you can start w/ a red. But, I've been surprised to at how orange works in certain cases. I'd even consider yellow.
I call these accent colors that are meant to bring up the right color gradually so expirimentation is gonna take some time. I usually add these a drop or two at a time to my test bowl. Their ratio will be up in the 100s to one in the final mix because they are a very bright accent colors and a little goes a long way. Buy them in the smallest quantity you can.
Be sure to keep a record of all your mixes and their ratioes along w/ the result compared to your target color. Be sure to have plenty of scrap on hand to do the testing. Also, when you do find a match you're satisfied w/ be sure to put a couple coats of the final finish on it to be sure. The amber of poly will effect the color. Real varnish is even worse which I learned the hard way. I noticed but the client didn't, guess they just like me or my work. Probably my work.
Your first shot at this will be time consuming and frustrating but in the end, your patience will pay off.
_________________ Joe T
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